Industry forecasts

The Swiss industry model embedded in the model world of BAK Economics

The Swiss industry model draws its exogenous variables from the Swiss macro model on the one hand and from the international industry model (IIS model) of Oxford Economics on the other. Within the framework of the sector model, BAK produces forecasts for the most important indicators of the Swiss sector spectrum.

The central indicator is gross value added at basic prices. However, forecasts are also made for deflators of value added, volume of work, number of employed persons and wages. The model works on a quarterly basis and covers all 2-digit figures of the NOGA (Nomenclature Générale des Activités économiques) sector system.

The Swiss sector model is also based on Oxford Economics software. This allows both model-immanent simulations to be carried out and the sector-side effects of various Swiss and international macro scenarios to be estimated.

Summaries of the industry model forecasts are published regularly in the publication CH-PLUS.

In addition to special analyses for various branches of industry, BAK regularly conducts in-depth analyses for selected sectors such as retail trade, construction and tourism.

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