Regional Forecasts

Regional forecasts

Regional projections are based on the regional model of BAK Economics. This model is used to analyze and forecast the economic and structural development of 46 sectors according to the NOGA system in all cantons of Switzerland. Within the framework of the model, the real and nominal gross value added, the number of employees and labor productivity are calculated for the cantonal sectors. In addition, work volumes and hourly productivity are calculated for cantonal sectors. The analysis and forecasting period begins in 1980 and extends to the year 2020.

Integrated component of the BAK economics model world
The regional model models the development of the national accounts for each Swiss canton. In its origin, the regional model is a structural model that can be used in economic analysis, taking into account various canton and sector specific factors. The regional model is an integral part of the BAK economics model world, the regional forecasts are thus consistent with the macro and industry forecasts.

BAK uses an extensive validation process to evaluate the model-based value-added and employment forecasts or productivity forecasts according to cantonal sectors. BAK uses extensive databases, diverse environmental data and its extensive expertise in the regional economy as well as in the preparation of economic forecasts.

Analyzes and forecasts up to the municipal level
BAK  is increasingly confronted with inquiries for special evaluations at a very disaggregated region level. Therefore, in the recent past BAK has carried out extensive refinements of the databases up to the municipal level. By preparing the data at the municipal level, analyzes and forecasts are made possible, which also apply to small-scale economic regions or functional regions, regardless of cantonal boundaries.

Marc Bros de Puechredon
T +41 61 279 97 25

Reto Krummenacher
+41 61 279 97 17

Contact persons