Analyses and forecasts for Swiss retail

Comprehensive analysis of the Swiss retail trade since 1980

Within its economic analyzes and forecasts, BAK Economics provides analyzes and consulting services on the empirical and quantitative level for the retail trade in Switzerland. The focus of the work is on macroeconomic and sectoral and economic area specific issues, both at national and regional level. Since 1980, BAK Economics has specialized in analyzing sectors and regions by means of different methods. The retail trade was one of the focus industries from the very beginning. A forecast model based on modern econometric methods was developed for the Swiss retail trade. In addition to the business cycle analysis, the analysis now includes regional market potentials, scenario analyzes as well as comprehensive structural studies of Swiss retail trade as well as international developments in the industry.

Economic forecasts and market analysis


With the quarterly publication of the publication «Perspektiven Detailhandel Schweiz», BAK Economics provides the basis for the analyzes in the field of retail trade. The latest market developments and forecasts are presented and explained four times a year.

The offer:

  • Comment on the current development of the economic framework
  • Commentary on current market developments
  • Commented forecasts for retail sales and prices for commodity groups
  • Commented forecast for consumption expenditure outside retail trade by goods and services groups
  • Prognosis up to 2025
  • Possibility of data collection in Excel format

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The national forecasts can be broken down at the regional level. This creates the opportunity to evaluate market potentials and their future development in Switzerland.

  • Calculation of the regional expenditure potential of households at the department level
  • Common definition of regions
  • Forecast until 2030


As part of the national forecasts, there is the possibility to predict the sales development of a retail company at the company level of a price strategy. This provides the company with a tool for the definition of strategic impacts.

  • Calculation of the real and nominal revenue development
  • Benchmarking sales growth with the overall market
  • On department level
  • For different price scenarios
  • Forecast until 2030

Scenario based

In times of great uncertainty, it is necessary to consider different trends in the economic, political and social future. With model-based scenario analyzes, we help to optimize planning security against various individually defined risks and opportunities.

The offer:

  • Model-based simulations of scenarios (population development, political decisions, fluctuations in exchange rates, ...)
  • Analysis of the impact of these scenarios on demand in the Swiss retail trade
  • Analysis of the impact of these scenarios on company-specific sales development

Structural and economic policy analyzes

The structural analyzes of BAK Economis serve as a basis for the facts and as a basis for argument in the debate about the development and importance of the industry and its general conditions.

A variety of topics are examined and dealt with,

  • Importance of retail trade for the Swiss economy
  • Costs, prices and performance in the retail trade in international comparison
  • Impact of liberalization of international trade in goods
  • Success factors in international comparison
  • Structural change and the challenges of the future
  • Impact of political decisions on the industry

Michael Grass
+41 61 279 97 23

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