Industry pushes economy to 3 percent growth
The Swiss economy has not been as dynamic as it has been since over 10 years. According to BAK Economics forecasts, the Swiss gross domestic product will grow by 3.0 percent in the current year. This means that the Swiss economy is expanding almost twice as fast as its growth potential. Nevertheless, no signs of overheating are foreseeable so far: sharply rising wages, prices or interest rates are not to be expected. The unusually high pace of expansion in 2018 will be supported by dynamic foreign demand and a more favorable Swiss franc exchange rate, from which the manufacturing industry in particular will benefit. However, the tailwind from the international environment will ease in the coming months. In the euro zone, quarterly growth has already halved in the first half of 2018, which Swiss companies will also feel with a certain delay. Added to this is the uncertainty surrounding global trade conflicts. Homemade risk factors (implementation of tax proposal 17, framework agreement with the EU) are also proving to be a burden. BAK Economics forecasts GDP growth of 1.6 percent for 2019. After the exceptional economic year of 2018, the signs come back to normal.