Will Switzerland be able to achieve climate neutrality?

Can you explain first of all what CSS is and why it is also important for Switzerland?

CCS, Carbon Capture and Storage, is one methodology to achieve climate neutrality even if there are some CO2 emissions which cannot be avoided. The 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC (2022) clearly states that it would be “almost impossible” to achieve the climate goals for 2050 without any technologies like CCS. This is recognized by the Federal Council as well: the ambitions of Switzerland are to capture and permanently store about 7 Mio t annually from 2050 on which are considered to be unavoidable and emerging from a point source like a “Kehrichtverbrennungsanlage” (waste incineration plant) or cement production.

What is the objective of the study that he also presented at the Swiss Green Economic Symposium?

Building a CCS system for Switzerland requires heavy investments. An estimation of the costs associated with the construction and operation of a CCS infrastructure is a crucial cornerstone in designing the framework conditions. To estimate these costs, we developed a hypothetical CCS system for Switzerland, based on the reverence values by the Federal Council planning and the most recent literature. In a detailed bottom-up modeling, we estimated together with our partner DENA the complete costs of CCS for Switzerland from 2028, when first investments will be taken, until 2050, when the system captures and stores 7 Mio.t of CO₂ annually.

Which expenses will Switzerland face to have a CCS system?

For the period from 2028 to 2050, the cumulative total costs of the CCS system amount to CHF 16.3 billion. At CHF 9.2 billion, the largest share of these costs (56%) is attributable to capture of CO₂ at the emission sites. The building and running of a national pipeline network for transportation will amount to 30% of the total costs, while the other cost elements, other transports (by train, ship and abroad) and the storage, are of minor importance. Almost a third of the total costs (31%) are necessary for investments in infrastructure. The remaining cost are spent on operating the system; the cost of energy needed for separation and transport is a substantial part of it.

How is such a precise estimation possible?

Of course, although the estimate provides a fairly accurate figure, there are numerous uncertainties. Analysing the risks in the cost estimation we used, we conclude that there is a bandwidth of about +/- 30% of total cost which seems realistic. Of course, at the extreme ends this means the costs might vary between CHF 11.2 and 21.4 billion.

There are also technical and political risks with consequences for the total cost. From the scenario analyzed it turns that a delay of pipeline construction could drive cost up substantially: If we take avoidance costs, the average cost per ton of CO₂ in CCS until 2050, they could on the one hand climb from CHF 180 in our baseline scenario up to CHF 196 per t CO₂. On the other hand, particularly specific technical solutions regarding the re-use of process energies could lower them to CHF 149.

Will Switzerland meet its climate goals by 2050?

I don’t know! But I am convinced that it would be possible, but we need to act first fast and second divers: We need to make use of all kinds of opportunities and measures to achieve this. This includes technical approaches as CCS, but just as much reduction of energy consumption and replacement of energy sources with sustainable ones.