Model-based analysis of the impact of economic activities, events or events on the (regional) economy. A broad range of methods (eg input-output models, application of the BAK Economics model family for simulation purposes, or econometric analysis) are used in economic analysis.
In studies in the market field of economic impact analyzes, the communicative benefit for the customer is also given priority. Frequently, it is a matter of questions raised in public and political discussions.
What is the benefit of impact analysis?
Impact analysis makes visible the effective impact of an investment or a large-scale project, an economic policy measure or the importance of an industry for a (regional) economy. It is possible to quantify how much gross value added, gainful employment, income or even tax revenues are generated effectively, directly or indirectly, by the economic activity of an industry, the construction of a new hotel or the implementation of economic policy measures. Thanks to the extensive regional database of BAK, a very precise demarcation of the examination perimeter is possible.
Measure direct and indirect effects
The economic activity of a given industry is directly linked to measurable economic effects such as value added, income or employment. On the other hand, indirect effects also result from the demand in other sectors, which also leads to added value. Other indirect effects, often referred to as induced effects, are generated by the income, profits and taxes generated by the activities of the industry as they are introduced again into the economic cycle. It is therefore only possible to make comprehensive statements about the effective overall significance of an industry for an economy if the direct and indirect effects are also taken into account.
Make effective meaning visible
The quantification of the indirect economic effects is carried out with the aid of so-called input-output models which make the integration of an economy visible from the resources (labor, capital and imports) through industrial interla- tion to consumption (consumption, investment and exports). They show which gross income, employment and income are effective, that is, directly and indirectly, can be traced back to the economic activity of, for example, an industry. Depending on the nature of the entire value chain and interbranch industry, the effective economic effect can be significantly higher than is directly apparent with a purely partial view of the industry. The neglect of these indirect effects may lead to a considerably distorted perception of the importance of an industry. The impact analysis can be carried out both for the quantification of the economic importance of sectors as well as for specific demand impulses.
The impact analysis tools can be used to answer a variety of questions. From the point of view of a region, the following fields of application are of particular interest:
Estimation of the importance of an industry for a region
- Die Bedeutung des Detailhandels für die Schweizer Volkswirtschaft
(im Autrag von Coop, Migros, Manor, Charles Vögele, Valora, Denner)
- Die Bedeutung des Tourismus für die Zürcher Volkswirtschaft
(im Auftrag von Zürich Tourismus)
- Die Bedeutung des Tourismus für die Basler Volkswirtschaft
(im Autrag von Basel Tourismus)
Estimation of the effects of a large event for a region
- Die volkswirtschaftliche Bedeutung der Messe Schweiz
(im Auftrag der Messe Schweiz AG)
Estimation of the effects of a large-scale project on a region
- «Bürgenstock Resort»: Bedeutung für die Zentralschweizer Tourismuslandschaft und die regionale Volkswirtschaft
(im Auftrag der Bürgenstock Hotels AG)
Estimation of an economic policy measure on a region / economy
- Analyse der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen eines Exportverbots für Rüstungsgüter
(im Auftrag des seco)